Possible Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Mary Clare Jones

A recent build-up of Russian military forces along the border of Ukraine is inflaming fears that a Russian invasion of the neighboring country is imminent. Although Russia denies any invasion in the works, it has seized Ukrainian territory in the past and has around 100,000 troops deployed on its borders currently. 

When did tensions first begin? 

Tensions were first stoked during a 2013 Ukrainian crisis when President Viktor Yanukovych denied a deal for a more significant merger into the European Union. Protests erupted, and Yanukovych attempted to put them down violently. Russia sided with the President while the US supported protesters. Last February, protesters took down the government and ran Yanukovych out of Ukraine. Russia tried to invade to salvage their influence and annexed Crimea the following month. Russian sympathizers and the Ukrainian military began to fight, leading the Russian army to invade the Eastern stretch of Ukraine to support the rebels. This has brought us to the precarious and volatile relationship of the countries today. The Russian economy is close to succession, and over 2,500 Ukrainians have been killed. 

How have other countries responded? 

As the global threat grows, other countries have heard the wake-up call. The US says it will not send combat troops to Ukraine but will still commit to helping the nation defend their autonomy. The Pentagon has 8,500 troops on alert, which the BBC says “could be deployed to NATO countries in Eastern Europe at short notice”. Other European countries have made it clear that they are not exactly keen on the US’s approach. France proposes that other European countries work with NATO to conduct their own dialogue with Russia.

The tensions are rising as Vladimir Putin says he will call for “appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures” if the West’s “aggressive” approach continues. Russia accuses NATO countries of bolstering Ukraine with weapons and blames the US for stoking tensions. Putin and President Biden have spoken numerous times. However, Russian officials have warned that the disappointment of not meeting demands will lead to a dead end. 

What is the Russian motive? 

Many wonder what Putin’s obsession with Ukraine stems from. One theory believes it to be a nationalistic distraction. Russia and Ukraine have large intertwining cultural roots, dating back to the times of Russian mythology. This ancient connection is very important to Russian nationalists who see Ukraine as a vital part of the Russian empire. Many believe Putin’s invasion is a nationalistic form of distraction from its plummeting economy. 

What could this mean for the future? This could mean major shifts in the global balance of power. If a Russian invasion was successful, some believe that it would encourage China to invade Taiwan. Gideon Rachman of the ‘Financial Times’ told NPR that “it would create the feeling that the U.S. really was looking much weaker, and that would raise the temptation for China”. With the failures of the US in Iraq and Afghanistan and China’s growing economy, the United State’s dominance could start to slip away.