Post-Midterms Politics Update

By Sydney Carroll and guest writer Sam Bodwell

Politics is hard. It’s hard to understand, hard to keep up with, and often hard to watch. So, as The Echo and BGA’s resident political analyst, I’m here to give you a recap on what happened in the midterm elections and what that means for our country. Now, we all know that I’m obviously not a Republican, and I was actually involved in some of the Democratic campaigns in this election. So, in order to give y’all a bipartisan midterms recap, I’ve invited my friend, Sam Bodwell, certified Republican™ to pipe in and give you his views on the most recent election. 

What are midterms?

SYDNEY: Midterm elections are exactly what they sound like: elections in the middle of a presidential term. On the surface, these elections have nothing to do with the president – rather, they deal with the House, the Senate, and then state races (think governors, state legislatures, etc.). Every member of the House of Representatives is up for reelection as their terms are 2 years. Things get weird with which Senators are up for reelection because their terms are 6 years and they’re all staggered, so it depends for them. On the state level, things are even weirder and certain people are up for certain things. However, these elections do have something to do with the president. We, as Americans, are opinionated, and almost always hate the President after about 2 years in office. So, in midterm elections often the party with the presidency (right now Democrats) lose some of their seats. However, this year, things were different (more later!).

THE RESULTS:

What is a runoff?

SAM: As the race for Senate control is close, a runoff election will be held in Georgia to determine the winner between frontrunners Herschel Walker (R) and Raphael Warnock (D). The Tenth Amendment of the Constitution grants rights to the states that are not explicitly given to the federal government. The Georgia state legislature passed a law that makes it one of two states (Louisiana being the other) that requires a political candidate to receive a majority vote, which is simply 50% or more of the population, in order to be declared the winner. On December 6 the runoff election will be held, and this time there will no longer be the other independent candidates who received a small percentage of votes that narrowly prevented Walker or Warnock from having a majority. The result will have a significant impact on policy-making over the next two years in D.C., While the Democrats are likely to keep Senate control with Vice President Kamala Harris being the tie-breaker vote (when Congress is split 50-50 between parties the VP acts as a tie-breaker), all eyes and funding have turned to Georgia. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) are Democrats who sometimes vote Republican. If either one goes against President Biden’s initiatives during the final two years of his term, he may be unable to pass any significant bills, just as the Build Back Better Act was shut down. All of this to say, the next two years and what will happen on the federal level may be determined by the Georgia runoff for Senator, so stay tuned for the results in the near future.

On Congress

SYDNEY: While the party in power typically loses a ton of elections in midterms, this year proved different. While Democrats lost control of the House, they retained control of the Senate and potentially even gained a seat (to be determined in a January Georgia Senate runoff). This isn’t necessarily because we love Joe Biden (his approval rating is 39%, the lowest of any sitting president in 40 years). Rather, the reasons are threefold:

1. Abortion. When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade this June, there was largely nonpartisan outrage. With 75% of Americans wishing Roe v. Wade was upheld, many Republican and Independent voters voted for Democrats because if Democrats were to maintain control of congress, they could potentially enshrine the right to reproductive healthcare into law. This led to Democrats bringing in many more votes than initially expected. 
2. Guns. After heartbreaking shootings in Uvalde, St. Louis, and even Murfreesboro, common-sense gun reforms have been marketed to voters as not political, but moral issues. With groups like MAGA (Mothers Against Greg Abbott) in Texas running political ads stressing fear for children’s safety, many voters from both sides of the aisle voted for candidates who supported some gun regulations. Those candidates were mostly democrats with some notable exceptions. 
3. Donald Trump. While Donald Trump has been the face of the Republican party since 2016, many prominent Republicans like Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, and even PACs like RVAT (Republican Voters Against Trump) have vehemently opposed his candidacy. While Trump-backed candidates took over important races across the country (Dr. Oz, Herschel Walker, Blake Masters, etc.), they largely lost. This signaled to the Republican party that voters seem to be moving away from Trump-backed candidates who also dispute the results of the 2020 election. As a result, in recent days Republican leaders like Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have publicly denounced Trump, signaling a potential end to his prominence in the party. 

On Progress

SYDNEY: We saw victories for greater diversity in our country’s leadership on both sides of the aisle during the midterms. Our country elected its two first openly lesbian governors in Tina Kotek of Oregon and Maura Healey of Massachusetts. Also, a record number of Black candidates ran in Republican races, with 28 Black candidates serving as their party’s nominees. There were at least 403 people of color, women, or nonbinary candidates running for seats in the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s midterm elections, the highest number on record. Overall, this year was a huge win for our nation’s government accurately reflecting the demographics of its people.  

Presidential Election 2024

SAM: Just days ago, former President Trump announced he will make a third run at the most prestigious office in the land. After a narrow loss to President Biden, this would certainly be a showdown if he wins the Republican nomination. Typically, presidential candidates do not announce their bid for the White House so far in advance of the election, as this restricts what their funds/donations can be spent on. The Republican primary will certainly be fascinating with the formerly Trump-endorsed and widely popular Florida governor Ron DeSantis gaining momentum as a potential candidate. As for Biden, he has vaguely affirmed that he will run again for re-election, but there are rumors swirling that he may not based on his sub-par approval rating and his mental health/age. What candidates may rise to the top on both sides of the aisle is uncertain as of now, but the 2024 election holds great promise.

Takeaways

SAM: With the Republicans looking like they will control the House of Representatives and the Democrats leaning towards having power in the Senate, we will see in the coming months whether or not Congress will pass any bills into effect. As previously mentioned, Biden’s approval ratings are not necessarily the best, so if he chooses to run again in 2024, he will need to improve the economy substantially to retain support. With bipartisanship becoming a less likely option as the parties are further divided, the future for our country’s progress is uncertain on the federal level with the Ukraine-Russia War looming. Let’s hope our policymakers can find some areas to agree on to get our economy back on track.

SYDNEY: What Sam said. Also, I think this midterm provides a critical juncture for not just American politics but particularly for each respective party. With former pro-Trump Republicans distancing themselves from the former president and Gov. Desantis all but guaranteed to launch a rival presidential campaign, America’s Republicans will be forced to make a choice in 2024. As for Democrats, their nominee is just as up in the air as Republicans’ with Biden’s lack of… wherewithal. So, stay tuned and expect plenty of my opinions in the meantime!